Box Office Breakdown: 'Fantastic Beasts' Earns Lowest 'Potter' Opening, Still Fantastic

Should Warner Brothers be worried about their new Harry Potter spin-off under-performing?  No.  Not even a little bit.  Even using the word "under-performing" makes me wince because by almost every conceivable measure, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them is a huge hit.  If any media outlet tries to make hay out of the fact that this movie didn't match any of the Harry Potter films in its opening weekend, you should immediately stop reading them.  For one, this isn't a Harry Potter film, and that matters.  Sure, the movie is set in the same universe, but its a completely different set of characters, a different time period, and even a different country.  More importantly, there is no gigantically successful novel from which this movie could be adapted.  

The bigger surprise is how close Fantastic Beasts actually came to the Potter films both critically and commercially.  Despite all the caveats I listed above, the film was only about $2 million away from the openings for both Order of the Phoenix and The Half Blood Prince.  Likewise, the critical reception, although less enthusiastic, also nearly matched a couple Potter films.  At the time of this writing, Fantastic Beasts sits at 76% positive on Rotten Tomatoes, only 2% away from The Deathly Hallows Part 1 and Order of the Phoenix.  The most interesting analysis here is how willingly audiences flocked to a spin-off from the main storyline in this franchise, and this is probably a great sign for the next high-profile spin-off coming in a just few weeks, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.  Take this weekend as a lesson, though, expecting Rogue One to hit the levels of The Force Awakens is beyond silly.  Although, keep an eye on the international box-office for that one.  I have a feeling that might come close.

A few other notes:

• Ang Lee's newest Oscar hopeful, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, bombed hard this weekend.  With only $930,000 at over 1100 theaters nationwide (ouch), it couldn't even break the top ten.
• Doctor Strange and Trolls battled it out for second and third, with Strange ultimately winning out.  However, look for Trolls to overtake it in next week's top ten.
• At fourth, Arrival stays strong, and with legs like that, an impressive $75 million to $80 million final domestic gross seems pretty likely. 
• The two other new wide-releases this weekend also performed really poorly, with Edge of Seventeen looking a tad better than Bleed for This's anemic $2.3 million.  After this and Fant4stic Four, Miles Tellers' viability as a movie star is questionable at best.
• Hacksaw Ridge proves that a solid war movie can apparently cure antisemitism.
• Almost Christmas will probably stick around until its title doesn't make sense anymore.
• The Accountant hangs on for probably its last week in the top ten.  Ben Affleck presumably isn't celebrating that fact with his kid's nanny.
• Just as with last week, the box office proves that Shut In certainly still is a movie that exists, I guess.

Check out the full estimated top ten:*

1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $75 million
2. Doctor Strange - $17.6 million
3. Trolls - $17.5 million
4. Arrival - $11.8 million
5. Almost Christmas - $7  million
6. Hacksaw Ridge - $6.7 million
7. The Edge of Seventeen - $4.8 million
8. Bleed for This - $2.3 million
9. The Accountant - $2.1 million
10. Shut In - $1.6 million

Wide-releases coming this week: Moana, Bad Santa 2, Allied, Rules Don't Apply

*Box office stats courtesy of boxofficemojo.com