Box Office Breakdown: Moana Opens Huge as Disney's New Record Looms

Disney owns Thanksgiving.  Of the top ten highest grossing films over the Thanksgiving holiday, nine belong to Disney (Frozen, Moana, Toy Story 2, Tangled, The Good Dinosaur, Enchanted, Unbreakable, A Bug's Life, 101 Dalmatians).  Maybe I'm not being broad enough, though, because Disney essentially owns the entire 2016 box office.  With Moana's $81 million opening and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story to come, Disney is still on track to break the yearly box office earnings record of $6.89 billion held by Universal Studios.  

This year marks the culmination of several expensive and risky purchases Disney made under studio chief Bob Iger over the last ten years, including Pixar for $7.4 billion in 2006, Marvel for $4 billion in 2009, and Lucasfilm for $4 billion in 2012.  Buying these companies is one thing, but cultivating and maintaining their rich talent pools while also resuscitating their in-house animation and live-action studios is damn near magical.  Disney has locked down the four quadrant hit, and in the process has found rare critical and commercial consensus.  I, for one, welcome our new Disney overlords. 

Moana killing it isn't exactly surprising.  What is surprising is the generally underwhelming performance of every other new release over the extended five day holiday weekend.  The Brad Pitt-Marion Cotillard WWII thriller Allied took in a normally admirable $18 million, but with an $85 million budget it is extremely close to flop territory.  This is now the second box office disappointment in a row for director Robert Zemeckis.  He can usually justify his hefty budgets, but between this and his last high profile flop The Walk, studios may be a little more hesitant to throw $80 million his way, which is kind of sad for movie lovers.  

Moving on, I'm not sure anyone was expecting Bad Santa 2 to match the original's surprisingly high take, and the poor audience and critical reaction basically proves the filmmakers just waited a bit to long for this sequel.  Similarly, Warren Beatty's return to the silver screen, and the directors chair, was met with a resounding harumph from pretty much everyone.  His off-center Howard Hughes picture, Rules Don't Apply, didn't even make the top ten, and it garnered the sixth lowest opening for a film carried in more than 2,000 theaters.  Honestly, the marketplace doesn't have a lot of room for this type of movie (read: low-key screwball comedies) to open wide in its initial run, and its performance highlights how out of touch Beatty and his team are with the current reality of the movie business.  There is no reason this should've opened in more than a thousand theaters, or cost $25 million to make.

A few other notes:

• Fantastic Beasts held on extremely well, and as a bonus opened huge in a few worldwide markets (in China, it opened better than the Harry Potter movies).  The sequels should start filming any day now.
• Doctor Strange is showing some surprisingly strong holdover, and it beat my prediction that Trolls would overtake it this week.  Not that I'm complaining
• Another of my predictions is holding up, though.  Arrival dropped a shockingly low 7.3% from last week, and might have the legs to beat my optimistic $80 million domestic gross prediction if the possible awards heat isn't just wishful thinking.
• Almost Christmas had an upswing because of the impending holiday, and will more than likely hold on in the top ten until mid December.
• Hacksaw Ridge and The Edge of Seventeen hang on to the last two spots, but the latter will likely drop off by next weekend.

Check out the full three day estimated top ten:*

1. Moana - $55.5 million
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $45.1 million
3. Doctor Strange - $13.3 million
4. Allied - $13 million
5. Arrival - $11.2 million
6. Trolls - $10.3 million
7. Almost Christmas - $7.6 million
8. Bad Santa 2 - $6.1 million
9. Hacksaw Ridge - $5.4 million
10. The Edge of Seventeen - $2.9 million

Also, here are the five day estimates for the extended Thanksgiving weekend:*

1. Moana - $81.1 million
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $65.7 million
3. Doctor Strange - $18.8 million
4. Allied - $18 million
5. Arrival - $15.6 million
6. Trolls - $14.2 million
7. Almost Christmas - $9.5 million
8. Bad Santa 2 - $9 million
9. Hacksaw Ridge - $7.6 million
10. The Edge of Seventeen - $4.1 million

Wide releases coming next weekend: Incarnate

*Box office stats courtesy of boxofficemojo.com