Box Office Breakdown: Moana Repeats While the Top Ten Shuffles for a Slow Weekend

Moana takes the number one spot in this weekend's box office, surprising absolutely no one (well, maybe Aunt Cheryl).  The only new competition this weekend was from the Aaron Eckhart horror movie Incarnate, which, landing at number nine, couldn't even meet the extremely low expectations of $4 to $5 million set by its studio.  Who'd have thought that the Christmas season would be a terrible time to release a non-holiday themed horror movie.  All is not lost for the film, though.  Since it only cost $5 million to make, it will probably make back its initial investment within a few weeks.  However, the marketing costs may be a different story.

Fantastic Beasts also predictably held onto second place, but following that we find a more interesting story.  Amy Adams' sci-fi drama Arrival shot up to third place for the first time in three weeks.  For those following this column, I've been predicting Arrival would become the season's sleeper hit, and after losing a scant 37% of its gross from last week, the prediction still stands.  The film only cost $47 million, and by riding a wave of positive word-of-mouth, it now seems likely that it will easily pass my $80 million domestic gross forecast.  Depending on how much Rogue One steals its audience in a few weeks, $100 million isn't completely out of the question, although it remains a little unlikely.     

A few other notes:

• Brad Pitt's stardom helped Allied beat expectations this week, but with a critical lashing and its high price tag, this still looks like an unfortunate misfire for all involved.
• Doctor Strange is now the second highest grossing single-hero debut for Marvel Studios behind only the first Iron Man.
• Like their iconic hair, Trolls continues to stay much higher than it deserves.
• Mel Gibson has to feel happy about the way Hacksaw Ridge is performing, which is probably a good thing because he just seems so angry all the time.
• Conversely, Billy Bob Thornton can't feel that great about how Bad Santa 2 is performing.  Which is a shame because he just seems so angry all the time.
• Lastly, Almost Christmas is still here in the ten spot because Christmas.

Check out the full three day estimated top ten:*

1. Moana - $28.3 million
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $18.5 million
3. Arrival - $7.3 million
4. Allied - $7 million
5. Doctor Strange - $6.4 million
6. Trolls - $4.6 million
7. Hacksaw Ridge - $3.4 million
8. Bad Santa 2 - $3.2 million
9. Incarnate - $2.6 million
10. Almost Christmas - $2.5 million

Wide-releases coming next weekend:  Office Christmas Party, Miss Sloane (expands), Nocturnal Animals (expands).

*Box office stats courtesy of boxofficemojo.com.